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19. Will the proposed Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) be sufficient?

19. Will the proposed Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) be sufficient?

Climate Action Tracker, a team made up of several independent scientific organizations, analyzed the INDCs submitted as of October 1st, 2015. The countries covered by the analysis represented 71% of global emissions. According to the group, expected GHG emissions in 2030 would need to be reduced by 30% in order to have a 66% probability of respecting the 2°C limit, without which the global temperature will have increased 2.7°C by 2100.(49)

The International Energy Agency came to a similar conclusion, looking at the INDCs that had been submitted as of May 14, 2015 in order to evaluate the impact of the proposed efforts on the climate. Without more ambitious GHG emission reductions, the temperature will have climbed 2.6°C by 2100, and 3.5°C over the longer term. To reach the 2°C target, the Agency estimates that CO2 emissions would already have to start falling in 2020, whereas it projects that they will still be growing in 2030 according to the proposed INDCs.(50)

The United Nations also deems that the INDCs proposed as of October 1st will be insufficient to respect the two degree target with a probability of 66%. They estimate that global emissions would be 19% higher in 2020 and 35% too high in 2030 if the INDCs were respected to the letter.(51)

Notes
49. Johannes Gütschow et al., “INDCs lower projected warming to 2.7°C: significant progress but still above 2°C,” Climate Action Tracker, October 1, pp. 1 and 5.
50. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015: Energy and Climate Change, 2015, pp. 12 and 13.
51. United Nations, Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, October 30, 2015.

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