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Fresh Takes

The probability of not dying from COVID-19 based on official data provided by provincial and federal governments

Covid has exacted a tragic toll across Canada. As of August, the pandemic has cost the lives of over 9,000 Canadians, with new deaths unfortunately occurring daily. At the same time, in order for our society to continue to provide jobs and to allow Canadian families to resume their lives as much as possible, we must be clear-eyed about the actual risk profile of the disease. In particular, that the vast majority of Covid tests have come back negative, the vast majority of people infected are never hospitalized, and the fact that Covid is far less dangerous to those under age 60, whether measured by hospitalization or by mortality. This last point is important for policy decisions on which areas of Canadian society can be safely reopened, and which areas require ongoing public health measures. Covid is a complicated disease with no one-size-fits-all solution, and our policy responses must be similarly careful and based on the very best data.

This table puts the effects of COVID-19 in context in the different regions of the country and as a function of age.

Notes

1. Calculated by subtracting number of people testing positive (128,948) from total number of people tested (5,504,392).
2. Calculated by dividing total number testing negative (5,375,444) by the total number of people tested (5,504,392) and multiplying by 100
3. Calculated by dividing total number positive cases (128,948) by the total number people tested (5,504,392) and multiplying by 100
4. Also called Case Fatality Ratio (CFR), calculated by dividing total number of deaths (9,126) by the number of confirmed positive cases (128,948) and multiplying by 100
5. Calculated by dividing total number of deaths (9,126) by the total number people tested (5,504,392) and multiplying by 100
6. Calculated by dividing total number of hospitalizations (11,475) by the number of confirmed positive cases (128,948) and multiplying by 100
7. Calculated by dividing total number of deaths (9,126) by the 2019 population estimate (37,589,262) and multiplying by 100
8. In 0-19 age group there were 150 hospitalizations, 340 in 20-29 age group, 550 in 30-39 age group, 857 in 40-49 age group, and 1,579 in 50-59 age group
9. One death in 0-19 age group, 9 deaths in 20-29 age group, 15 deaths in 30-39 age group, 50 deaths in 40-49 age group, and 211 deaths in 50-59 age group
10. StatsCan data: 0-4 age group: 1,943,175; 5-9 age group: 2,039,352; 10-14 age group: 2,031,762; 15-19 age group: 2,114,635; 20-24 age group: 2,476,698; 25-29 age group: 2,625,474; 30-34 age group: 2,603,938; 35-39 age group: 2,580,021; 40-44 age group: 2,421,009; 45-49 age group: 2,396,406; 50-54 age group: 2,502,667; 55-59 age group: 2,749,626
11. Calculated by dividing total number of people under 60 hospitalized (11,475) by the total number of positive cases (128,948) and multiplying by 100.
12. Calculated by dividing total number of people under 60 hospitalized (11,475) by the 2019 population estimate for that age structure (28,484,763) and multiplying by 100.
13. Calculated by dividing total number of deaths in people under 60 (286) by the 2019 population estimate for that age structure (28,484,763) and multiplying by 100.

Sources (current to date in brackets):

Canada: (August 31)
AB: (August 30)
BC: (August 31)
MB: (August 31)
NB: (August 31)
NF: (August 31)
NS: (August 31)
ON: (August 30)
PEI: (August 25)
QC: (August 30)
SK: (August 31), SK: (August 31)
NT: (August 31)
NU: (August 31)
YT: (August 31)
2019 Population estimates

Total number of people tested
Total people testing positive
Total deaths
Total hospitalized
2019 Population
2019 Population under 60 years of age

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