The Canada-Germany Natural Gas Supply Agreement clearly demonstrates the demand for a project like Marinvest’s, says the MEI
- A natural gas tanker departing from the Quebec’s North Shore would reach Germany 18 days sooner than one departing from British Columbia.
Montreal, May 27, 2026 – The signing of an agreement to export Canadian natural gas to Germany from a port in British Columbia demonstrates that there is clear demand for a gas terminal project, such as the one proposed by Marinvest, in Quebec, says a researcher at the MEI.
“Stability and reliability are valuable when it comes to energy supply, and that is what Germany is reminding us of today,” stated Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI. “If natural gas liquefaction terminals were to come online on the East Coast, it is clear that European buyers would take an interest, especially given the reduction in transportation costs that this would entail.”
Under an agreement announced earlier this morning, the SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe) group is set to purchase one million metric tons of liquefied natural gas from the proposed terminal associated with the Ksi Lisims project near Prince Rupert, British Columbia.
Natural gas deliveries are set to begin in the early 2030s, and would continue for 20 years, according to the German ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. According to Energy Minister Hodgson, the gas would be shipped aboard LNG carriers that would travel down the Pacific coast and through the Panama Canal before heading to Northern Europe.
This route from Prince Rupert to the port of Wilhelmshaven in northern Germany covers a distance of 9,387 nautical miles. According to the MEI’s calculations, at an average speed of 15 knots, and assuming no delays at the Panama Canal, a one-way trip would take just over 26 days.
The same LNG carrier, departing instead from the port of Baie Comeau – where Marinvest Energy plans to build a natural gas liquefaction plant – would take just under eight days to reach the same German port.
In an analysis published earlier this year, the MEI noted that Quebec has a significant comparative advantage in liquefied natural gas exports due to its proximity to Europe. Its main competitors in Qatar and the Gulf of Mexico must travel a distance 38 to 117 per cent longer to reach major European LNG terminals.
“The Germans are reminding us today that, contrary to what BAPE officials believed in 2021, there is indeed a demand for Canadian natural gas exports from Quebec,” says Mr. Giguère. “Unfortunately, this is what happens when you rely on officials to determine whether or not a market exists, rather than entrepreneurs willing to risk their own money.”
In 2021, the Bureau d’audiences publiques en environnement (BAPE) concluded in its review of a proposed gas terminal project in the Saguenay region that there was little or no market for Canadian natural gas in Europe, and that existing or planned liquefaction terminals would be sufficient.
Between 2024 and 2025, imports of liquefied natural gas rose by 25 percent in France, 64 percent in Germany, and 85 percent in Belgium, according to data published by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL).
Demand for natural gas is also projected that to grow by 30 per cent by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency’s “business-as-usual” scenario.
An IPSOS poll conducted for the MEI last December found that 67 per cent of Quebecers say they support the construction of a natural gas liquefaction terminal, while only 15 per cent oppose it.
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The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.
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