Quebec’s upcoming election will further shift the province rightwards, regardless of who wins

On Monday, Quebecers will elect a new government. In all likelihood, this new government will be formed by the sovereigntist Parti Québécois (PQ), which to this day remains committed to holding a referendum on Quebec’s independence during its first mandate (but after Trump leaves the White House).

But despite his aura of inevitability, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s PQ has yet to poll over the 30 percent mark during the campaign. He may garner a small majority, even as five different parties are elected as  members of the National Assembly. His promise of holding a referendum enabled him  to build a new floor for the PQ, which was approaching  extinction in 2022. But this floor also appears to have become a ceiling.

Beyond the horse race, I find it more relevant to look at the policies brought forward during the campaign, as they appear to confirm Hub Editor-at-Large Sean Speer’s view of a shifting Overton window in Canada.

The Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) is set to emerge as a real winner of this election, as leader Éric Duhaime is set on making his arrival to the National Assembly, along with a caucus that may qualify the PCQ for official party status. His campaign centred on health care reform that includes substantial private delivery, exploiting Quebec’s natural gas resources, major tax cuts, and trimming the number of bureaucrats. He has also paid an important nod to Quebec’s conservative and autonomist tradition, for example, saying he would include the notwithstanding clause in every piece of legislation brought forward, or promising to maintain “le pouvoir québécois” (Quebec’s leverage within the Confederation).  The emergence of his party as a political force in the province (from zero seats in the last election to potentially 12 next week) could have lasting implications for Canadian politics, as it provides a unified home base for federal Conservatives in Québec’s provincial politics.

Other political parties have taken a page from his political platform. The Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberal Party are both promising to meaningfully reduce the number of bureaucrats. The PQ is running on slashing large corporate subsidies, a key theme of  Duhaime’s own campaign. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), for its part, has now shown openness to increasing  natural gas development and injecting more private delivery in Quebec’s health care system. Even the far-left Québec Solidaire is vowing to eliminate the provincial sales tax on used goods, a popular PCQ policy plank.

Beyond the horse race, I find it more relevant to look at the policies brought forward during the campaign, as they appear to confirm Hub Editor-at-Large Sean Speer’s view of a shifting Overton window in Canada.

While no single theme has dominated the campaign, the sheer fact that these ideas have made their way into many political platforms speaks to the shifting climate of opinion in the province of Québec. The same certainly holds true at the federal level, where the same MPs who cheered on the passing of Bill C-69 impact assessment act are now advocating for unleashing Canada’s energy superpower potential.

Obviously, whether these policies become a reality remains unclear. In a minority government scenario, which remains realistic, the PQ could either choose to ally itself mostly with the PCQ on its right flank, or with Québec Solidaire on its far-left flank, potentially producing rather different results. Still, public opinion has moved substantially over the past few years in the province on key issues towards classical liberalism and the economic right.

Despite Quebec’s unique cultural context, Duhaime may have provided a blueprint for small-c conservative parties across the country. After campaigning and building a broader base of support over the last four years, he has grown his party by appealing to Quebec autonomists and those concerned with the province’s defining cultural issues.

This new fusionism, while Quebec-specific, may nonetheless be replicable in many respects. His tough-on-crime agenda and promise to crack down on asylum seekers abusing the system are reminiscent of Harper-era language and tone, but adapted to today’s issues and concerns.

With the CAQ experiment potentially heading for the trash heap of history and the political spoils of its demise having yet to be fully divided up among competing parties, the Conservatives can yet hope to see their support grow somewhat organically in the years ahead.

However, the relationship between the Quebec government and the federal government could become strained in the coming months. The PQ leader (and likely future premier) has hinted that he disagrees with Carney’s counter-tariffs and has pledged to defund the lieutenant-governor and sever ties to the monarchy. While the latter issue is largely symbolic, the former poses a real threat to the unanimity that has been characteristic of the Canadian position vis-à-vis Trump. As Plamondon seeks conflict to bolster the case for a referendum, Quebec voters should brace for impact.

Daniel Dufort is President and CEO of the MEI. The views reflected in this opinion piece are his own.