Liquefied natural gas: Quebec has a strategic advantage in supplying Europe

• Quebec is closer to Europe’s main LNG import terminals

Montreal, February 5, 2026 – A natural gas liquefaction plant project like the Marinvest project in Baie-Comeau would represent a strategic opportunity for Quebec to position itself as a reliable supplier to the European market, with global natural gas demand remaining high, shows a new MEI study.

“The Marinvest project arrives at a critical juncture, with Europe looking not only to replace its Russian natural gas supply, but also its supply from Norway, which is anticipating a drop in production,” explains Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst at the MEI. “Quebec and Canada have a real window of opportunity to meet this demand and strengthen our trade ties with Europe.”

In 2024, Norway supplied one-third of European natural gas imports. The Nordic country expects its production to fall 28 per cent by 2035, and 64 per cent by 2050. The researcher sees an opportunity for Quebec and Canada to replace this supply.

From a global perspective, demand for natural gas is expected to increase 30 per cent by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency’s current policies scenario.

A clear geographical advantage

Mr. Giguère explains that Quebec benefits from a significant geographical advantage for the European market.

The maritime distance between Baie-Comeau and the main European terminals is from 2,876 to 3,375 nautical miles. A typical route, between Baie-Comeau and the Dunkirk terminal in northern France, would take around eight days at an average speed of 15 knots.

In comparison, getting to Dunkirk from the main American terminals in the Gulf of Mexico would take 14 days at that speed, and over 17 days from Doha, Qatar, another big export terminal.

“Geography plays in Quebec’s favour,” adds Mr. Giguère. “A shorter distance means shorter delivery times, and therefore lower transport costs, compared to dealing with its main competitors.”

A project that must be treated as a priority

The MEI recalls that a comparable project, GNL Québec, would have produced up to 46 million cubic metres of liquefied natural gas per day, representing around $1.7 billion of annual exports and the equivalent of 6.2 per cent of European gas imports in 2024.

“Quebec must not repeat the errors of the past,” says Mr. Giguère. “A long and unpredictable assessment process discourages investors and prevents clear decision-making.”

In this context, the MEI considers that short of an in-depth reform of the environmental assessment process, a liquefied natural gas plant project like the one proposed by Marinvest should be deemed a priority project in the context of Quebec’s Bill 5, in order to ensure an evaluation that is not only rigorous, but also efficient and predictable.

You can read the Economic Note here.

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The MEI is an independent public policy think tank with offices in Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary. Through its publications, media appearances, and advisory services to policymakers, the MEI stimulates public policy debate and reforms based on sound economics and entrepreneurship.

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